According to Anadolu Agency, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reported that despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, global trade is expected to reach its highest level ever—$35 trillion—in 2025.

The organization’s report states: new data confirms that trade continued to grow in the second half of 2025, although geopolitical tensions, rising costs, and uneven global demand have slowed its momentum.

According to UNCTAD, global trade is projected to grow by 7% in 2025, increasing by around $2.2 trillion, setting a new record.

In the third quarter of this year, global trade grew by 2.5% compared to the previous quarter. This growth is expected to continue in the final quarter of the year, though at a slower pace.

The report adds that if forecasts materialize, the goods sector will contribute roughly $1.5 trillion to total trade this year, while the services sector will add about $750 billion, consistent with a 7% annual growth rate.

The organization noted a significant shift in price trends, now expecting prices to decline—following two quarters in which rising commodity prices contributed to the increase in trade value.

As a result, the increase in global trade at the end of 2025 will be driven by growth in the actual volume of trade—the real quantity of goods transported—rather than by rising prices.

According to UNCTAD, this reflects stable demand in an environment of declining inflation.

Regionally, East Asia recorded the highest export growth compared to last year at 9%, supported by a 10% rise in intra-regional trade.

Africa also experienced a 6% increase in exports and a 10% rise in imports. South–South trade grew by nearly 8%, indicating stronger ties among developing economies.

Source: Tasnim.