The Peak Production Season in the United States

This growth has been driven mainly by higher consumer spending, improved exports, and increased government expenditure. Personal consumption, which forms the backbone of the U.S. economy, has accelerated. The increase has been observed in both goods and services, indicating that demand pressures in the U.S. economy remain elevated.

In the investment sector, however, the picture is more complex. Fixed investment has continued to grow, but at a significantly slower pace. Investment in equipment and software assets—particularly those related to technology and artificial intelligence—has remained a key driver of growth. By contrast, investment in construction and housing has declined for several consecutive quarters. The drop in residential investment is seen as a direct result of high mortgage rates and rising construction costs, especially due to tariffs on imported materials.

In foreign trade, exports surged while imports declined, helping to narrow the trade deficit and boost GDP growth. Part of this dynamic reflects volatility stemming from the trade and tariff policies of the Trump administration, which led to sharp fluctuations in import flows. Meanwhile, the negative contribution of inventories to growth was much smaller than in the previous quarter.

Despite the strong performance shown in official data, many economists emphasize that this growth reflects a “K-shaped” economy. In such an economy, consumption is largely driven by high-income households that have benefited from a booming stock market and rising wealth. In contrast, low- and middle-income households are under intense pressure from the cost of living, with a large share of their income spent on essentials such as food, leaving little room to increase spending on travel, clothing, and leisure services. At the same time, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index grew at a faster pace than in the previous quarter.

Rising prices of imported goods due to tariffs, higher energy costs linked to the heavy power consumption of AI-related data centers, and the prospect of increased health insurance premiums are all placing additional strain on households’ purchasing power. Meanwhile, although the Federal Reserve has slightly reduced interest rates, it has signaled that it is in no hurry to implement further cuts in the near term.

According to Reuters, while the third quarter of 2025 was numerically a strong period for the U.S. economy, many analysts believe that this momentum will not carry into the fourth quarter. A federal government shutdown could shave one to two percentage points off fourth-quarter growth, while rising living costs are expected to further constrain consumer spending./Donyaye Eghtesad