Venezuela Intervention – Beyond Regime Change to Energy Pre-emption

Ousama al Ja’far, reporter for Sedaye Sama in Chicago, United States of America

The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, was immediately framed by the Trump administration as a decisive strike against a corrupt socialist regime. However, the public commentary in the aftermath reveals a much clearer, and more alarming, strategic objective: the explicit seizure of Venezuela’s oil wealth. As President Trump stated at his press conference after the attack, the plan is for U.S. oil companies to “go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure… and start making money for the country”.

To dismiss the surrounding deployment of 20,000 troops and carrier groups as a mere “show of force” is to ignore this stated intent. The operation is not a bluff; it is a pre-emptive move on the global energy chessboard. The timing—mere days after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Mar-a-Lago—is conspicuous. It suggests a coordinated strategy where confrontation with Iran is not a question of “if” but “when,” and the United States is now scrambling to secure its energy flank.

The Iranian Sword of Damocles: The Strait of Hormuz

The core of Iran’s deterrent power is not its army, but its geography. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint controlled by Iran, is the world’s most critical oil transit corridor. Approximately 20 million barrels of oil—representing about 20% of global supply and nearly $600 billion in annual trade—pass through it each day. The oil comes not only from Iran but from all major Gulf producers, including Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait if attacked resulting global shock would be catastrophic. Oil prices would skyrocket, severely impacting the world’s largest economies. China, India, Japan, and South Korea are particularly dependent on Hormuz transit. While the U.S. military could try eventually reopen the strait, leading to consequences as it did during the 1980s “Tanker War,” the interim disruption would trigger a global recession.

Venezuela: A Theoretical Replacement, A Practical Quagmire

In this context, Venezuela appears as a logical, if desperate, insurance policy. It sits on the world’s largest proven oil reserves—an estimated 303 billion barrels, or about 17-20% of the global total. The theoretical logic is clear: secure an alternative source of heavy crude to offset potential losses from a Gulf blockade.

However, the search results reveal a staggering gap between this strategic desire and on-the-ground reality. Venezuela currently produces only about 1 million barrels per day, a fraction of its historical peak and less than 1% of global output. Its industry is in a state of catastrophic decay after decades of mismanagement, corruption, and underinvestment. Key facts about the challenge include:

· Colossal Investment Required: Experts estimate it would take $58 billion just to update infrastructure to return to moderate production levels, with full revitalization costs soaring past $110 billion.
· Industry Reluctance: Contrary to President Trump’s claims, U.S. oil giants are not eager to return. Chevron, the only U.S. firm still operating there, has issued only a cautious statement about following laws. ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, which had assets seized in the past, have remained silent or called speculation “premature”. A Politico report cited in multiple articles indicates that oil companies were asked by the administration about returning last month and “firmly declined”.
· Market Realities: The global oil market is currently “oversupplied” with prices low, disincentivizing massive, risky investments in unstable regions. As analyst Lorne Stockman noted, “The last thing [oil companies] want is for a massive oil reserve to suddenly be opened up”.

The Netanyahu Connection and the March to War

This leads to the crucial, unsettling connection. The Netanyahu-Trump meeting was not merely a photo opportunity. It likely involved aligning strategies for a final confrontation with Iran. For Israel, a U.S.-Iran war that decisively cripples the Islamic Republic is a long-sought strategic goal. For the U.S., such a war is unconscionable without first mitigating the single greatest point of leverage Iran holds: the Strait of Hormuz.

The Venezuela operation, therefore, can be seen as the opening move—a rushed and poorly conceived attempt to secure an alternative oil spigot before turning off the main one. It is an attempt to answer the question, “How do we fight Iran without collapsing the global economy?” The apparent answer—by seizing Venezuela’s oil—is faltering before it even begins, meeting resistance from the very corporate partners the plan depends on.

Conclusion: A Strategy Built on Sand

The brazen action in Venezuela is a signal of intent, not of preparedness. It reveals an administration psychologically and strategically preparing for a larger, more dangerous conflict with Iran. However, the plan to use Venezuela as an energy life-raft is collapsing under the weight of economic reality, corporate skepticism, and Venezuela’s own profound dysfunction.

The world is not watching a simple regime change. It is witnessing a desperate and ill-configured pre-emptive strike in a coming war, one where the economic defenses are being built on sand even as the military offensive is drawn on the map. The bluff was not the troop deployment; the bluff is the belief that Venezuela’s oil can be a timely solution to the hurricane a war with Iran would unleash.

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This analysis is based on current reports from CNN, The Guardian, BBC, Axios, WIRED, and other international media, along with statements from the Trump administration and energy sector analysts.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/03/business/oil-gas-venezuela-maduro

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/03/us-oil-trump-venezuela

https://rbnenergy.com/daily-posts/blog/top-10-energy-prognostications-2026-year-horse-lets-ride

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/us-oil-giants-mum-after-trump-says-theyll-spend-billions-venezuela

https://www.wired.com/story/trump-wants-venezuelas-oil-getting-it-might-not-be-so-simple/

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78n6p09pzno

https://www.axios.com/2026/01/03/venezuela-oil-maduro-trump-involvement