Amirhossein Khodai, Researcher

The sudden and shock-therapy removal of the preferential exchange rate in Turkey (2021–2025) increased prices sevenfold in just five years and brought cumulative inflation to 633%, despite the fact that Turkey was not involved in a war. Now imagine what the same misguided policy in Iran, amid sanctions and the consequences of recent imposed wars, could cause. Yet successful alternative paths exist around the world that Parliament and the government can learn from to manage inflation rather than merely criticize it.

The experience of successful countries shows that the key to success lies in gradual reforms and support for production. Poland used a gradual adjustment of the exchange rate; India completed value chains; Egypt gradually removed energy subsidies; Vietnam combined a flexible exchange-rate policy with investment incentives; Indonesia targeted subsidies toward the end of the supply chain through electronic vouchers; Argentina gradually reduced subsidies for high consumers; Malaysia relied on guaranteed purchases from domestic producers; and Scandinavian countries established foreign-exchange reserve funds. All of these approaches helped control inflation without destructive shocks.

Germany, too, through a smart industrial strategy and the creation of strategic cooperation networks among industry, banks and government—along with export consortium management and supply-chain financing—has managed to complete value chains domestically and minimize dependence on imports.

But what are the practical tools for such management? In financing and supporting production, smart guaranteed purchasing with dynamic pricing, low-cost financing for the entire production chain, gradual tax exemptions, and parallel foreign-currency forward securities are key solutions.

For targeted subsidies, smart electronic vouchers, direct cash transfers based on the Brazilian model, and commodity-based support packages can eliminate rent-seeking and direct assistance precisely toward lower-income deciles. Their effectiveness, however, depends on a strong anti-corruption and transparency mechanism. Establishing an independent anti-rent task force composed of relevant supervisory institutions, along with technologies such as blockchain to track financing from origin to destination, can prevent diversion and abuse.

In utilizing natural resources, Iran has enormous potential, with 90 million hectares of rangelands, 80 million hectares of which require restoration, as well as 30 million hectares of desert. Modern technologies such as smart seed-spreading drones, the Zeocody method for combating desertification, watershed management across 20 million hectares of degraded rangelands, and producing biochar from agricultural waste could transform forage production and food security. Drawing on the experience of Africa’s Great Green Wall project, which restored 100 million hectares of desert, could further expand this potential.

At the policy and regulatory level, stabilizing the foreign-exchange market through derivatives such as forwards, options and futures; controlling liquidity growth by reforming reserve requirements; imposing capital-gains and speculative-trading taxes; and increasing transparency of economic information can prevent price shocks.

To complete value chains, supporting extraterritorial cultivation in neighboring countries through barter arrangements can reduce the cost of supplying essential goods without putting additional pressure on domestic water resources. The formation of export consortia and supply-chain financing are other key tools.

This self-sufficiency and productive capacity would have benefits beyond Iran’s borders. It could strengthen economic stability and Iran’s credibility as a reliable partner in strategic regional projects such as the North–South Corridor, creating a foundation for the country to become a powerful logistics and trade hub and generate sustainable foreign-exchange revenues.

Building domestic capacity is at the heart of all these solutions. The concept of a resistance economy emphasizes reducing external dependencies. The use of domestic specialists, indigenous research and development, knowledge-based companies and Iranian capital can form the foundation of this capacity-building process.

Meanwhile, activating intermediary institutions such as university cooperation foundations as links between universities, industry and small-scale capital can facilitate and accelerate the commercialization of technical knowledge and direct talented individuals toward the real needs of production chains.

Parliament’s vital role goes beyond criticism. Through annual budgeting, designing targeted support packages, overseeing the optimal allocation of resources and requiring the government to implement reforms gradually, Parliament can help manage this process. However, such technical policymaking will not achieve the desired outcome without a strong social and media component.

The government and Parliament should, through a comprehensive economic public-awareness campaign, clearly explain the reasons, objectives and benefits of this path to the public. By building trust, they can turn society from a concerned observer into an informed participant in these national reforms.

Today is the time to use sound judgment and learn from successful global experiences to prevent prices from rising more than sevenfold and to control inflation through rational policies and production—not through shocks and mere criticism.